GeoSecurity Forum
Conflict, state power, and technology in global security.
Independent security review
Drones striking oil depots and tankers in and around Russia's Rostov region reveal a strategic shift toward targeting energy logistics with unmanned systems, complicating defense, maritime security, and international legal norms. Policymakers must harden...
Russia’s rejection of temporary ceasefires must be read alongside rapid advances in AI-enabled drones, which make pauses riskier and less verifiable. In 2026 NATO will need to scale counter-drone defences, industrial throughput and verification...
As Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso move their confederation toward deeper integration, Russian diplomatic, security and economic engagement has shifted from episodic support to institutionalized influence. Moscow’s conversion of mercenary networks into state-linked forces...
Saudi‑Iran normalization created space for a UN roadmap in Yemen, but by January 8, 2026 the détente remains an enabling condition rather than a guarantor of settlement. Durable peace will require verifiable sequencing, broader...
Leaders in Paris signalled a shift from episodic pledges to legally binding security guarantees that include military capabilities, increasing the likelihood long‑range strike munitions will be a sustained part of Ukraine’s deterrent. This move...
Delays to Libya's national elections have reduced political incentives for compromise and allowed rival forces to expand arsenals. International enforcement actions exist but are outpaced by funding networks, external suppliers, and poor weapons management,...
A cautious stoppage in Houthi attacks and a limited resumption of Red Sea transits have eased war risk pricing and opened a narrow path for freight and supply chain relief. Sustained economic recovery will...
Recent surrenders and the loss of district-level control reflect a strategic weakening of the Myanmar junta; the situation now requires humanitarian prioritisation, mediated political arrangements and international policies calibrated to prevent long-term fragmentation. The...
China has reorganized and expanded its cyber forces into distinct, centrally controlled arms while conducting persistent operations that challenge existing norms. Closing the gap between Chinese doctrine of cybersovereignty and widely accepted international expectations...
The ceasefire’s Litani-line requirement has produced visible movement in southern Lebanon but not the sort of verifiable, irreversible disarmament that would satisfy Israel or stabilize the border. Structural sequencing problems, limited Lebanese state capacity,...
By late 2025 the SAF has parlayed renewed air operations into local battlefield advantages, enabling resupply and strikes that have blunted RSF massed ground offensives. The result is a fragmented conflict in which RSF...
There were no verified reports of a live-fire collision near-miss in the Taiwan Strait on December 4, 2025; however, recent patterns of close air and maritime encounters and increasingly coercive live-fire drills mean that...